Smoke Tree, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

786
FXUS66 KEKA 062306
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
406 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024


.UPDATE...


.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period northwesterly swell will build
early Monday morning with significant swell heights up to 5 ft
with periods from 15-16 seconds by mid/late morning. This high
energy swell has the potential to bring a high to moderate risk of
sneaker waves, especially early afternoon. Shorter period NW
swell of 3 ft at 10 seconds may initially mitigate the risk. A
beach hazard statement has been hoisted from 10 AM to 5PM Monday
for beaches along Coastal Del Norte and Humboldt Coast. /ZVS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024/

SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably high temperatures continue across the
interior today with weak high pressure ridging. A more typical cool
and moist fall-like pattern is expected to develop over the course
of the upcoming week, with slight potential for rainfall by the end
of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures will be unseasonably warm again today as
weak high pressure persists over the eastern Pacific. Highs are
expected to reach into the mid to upper 90`s across interior
counties, with isolated valley highs potentially approaching 100
degrees in Mendocino and Lake Counties. Moderate heat risk in these
areas can affect individuals sensitive to heat and without adequate
cooling/hydration. Additionally, broad offshore flow will keep
daytime RH`s low and help to push the heat further towards the
coast. Hi-res models continue to indicate a high probability of
temperatures >75 degrees for coastal areas spanning Cape Mendocino
down through Shelter Cove, Fort Bragg and Point Arena.

Minimum daytime RH`s will struggle to rise above the mid to upper
teens across the interior. As previously discussed, mid-level clouds
are beginning to approach the southern portion of the CWA with a
surge of mid-level moisture. Simulated reflectivity still seems to
be a bit misleading given dry surface conditions, but an isolated
rain shower across elevated terrain is not impossible, especially
in Mendocino and Lake counties.

Otherwise, temperatures and RHs are still expected to trend more
cool and moist as broad upper level troughing enhances NW flow. Mid-
range models are highlighting potential for 20-25 mph winds
developing Monday and Tuesday afternoon in southern Mendocino and
Lake counties as the coastal pressure gradient strengthens. This
will pose an elevated fire weather risk for these areas, as daytime
RH values will still be in the teens and low 20`s with poor to
moderate overnight recoveries through Tuesday.

Daytime highs are expected to fall into the upper 70`s and low 80`s
by late week. An upper shortwave stemming from a strong low in the
Gulf of Alaska may disrupt winds offshore, allowing coastal stratus
to return by Wednesday and potentially producing light drizzle.
Model clusters continue to note a stronger upper level low
descending into the PNW by late Friday/early Saturday. NBM
probabilities of >0.1 in of rainfall are beginning to increase to
around 70% for Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties late
Friday into early Saturday. These probabilities decrease to <50%
from northwest to southeast into Trinity, Mendocino and Lake
County. There is a fair amount of model uncertainty at this point
regarding location and total rainfall, but wetting rain is likely
for NW California.

AVIATION...Clear skies this afternoon with VFR conditions expected
to prevail through the early evening at the coastal terminals.
Satellite imagery is showing mid to high level stratus over
Mendocino and Lake counties with some small cumulus popping up near
the Trinity horn and Yolla Bolly`s. Northerly winds at KCEC around 6
- 8 kts this afternoon are expected to ease overnight and veer
southerly with light winds 2 - 3 kts. Radiative cooling may lead to
ground fog for short a few hours both KCEC and KACV. MOS guidance is
aggressively signaling low visibility at KACV in the early morning
hours, just before sunrise on Monday. TEMPO groups are in place to
cover the drop in visibility as probabilities show a 50% chance of
<0.5 miles in obscuration for KACV. KCEC <0.5 mile probabilities are
about 30 - 40%. Prevailing VFR conditions at KUKI through the TAF
period.
/EYS

MARINE...Northerly winds will persist through much of the week as
the thermal trough remains strong over the interior in response to
continued warm temperatures over the western states. However, with a
broad trough over the eastern Pacific, the pressure gradient will
not be as steep over the waters, limiting the strength of the
northerly winds. Accelerated winds around Cape Mendocino in the
southern waters will generate gusts in excess of 25 kts. Winds and
short period seas will increase in the southern waters Monday
afternoon, which has prompted Small Craft Advisories for the
northern and southern outer waters as well as the southern
interior waters near shore. A long period WNW swell will build to
around 6 ft at 15 seconds on Monday as well. Winds and short
period seas will be unassuming for the northern inners thus
enhancing the threat of sneaker wave risks.

FIRE WEATHER...Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will
gradually taper for the start of this week, with daytime RH`s
remaining in mid- teens to low 20`s across the interior. Elevated
NE winds at 5 to 10 mph with isolated gusts approaching 15 mph
are possible this evening. NW onshore flow is expected to promote
cooler and moister conditions as the week progresses. Gusty NW
winds exceeding 20 mph are possible in Lake and southern Mendocino
county Monday and Tuesday afternoon as the coastal pressure
gradient strengthens. This will pose an elevated fire weather
risk, especially on exposed terrain. Otherwise, daytime
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70`s and 80`s by
midweek with overnight RH recoveries 50 to 75%. Wetting
precipitation is still possible on the horizon for late next week
for northern portions of the CWA.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for CAZ101-103.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to midnight PDT
     Tuesday night for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PDT Monday for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to midnight PDT
     Tuesday night for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png